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Angie Motshekga

South Africa’s real 2017 Matric pass rate – 39.25%

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has released[1] the 2017 National Senior Certificate results, revealing a matric pass rate of 75.1%. However, the official pass rate does not tell the full story – ignoring the large percentage of students who drop out before they write the matric exams. Equal Education has described[2] the matric pass percentage as a superficial and misleading indicator of public education quality.

“The pass rate reflects only the performance of those learners who managed to stay in school for 12 years and obscures how many dropped out along the way,” said Equal Education. It said the Basic Education Department has systematically failed to address learner retention. For a broader perspective, you must use a cohort matric pass rate, it said.

Equal Education defines the cohort matric pass rate as the percentage of learners in grade 2 who pass matric 11 years later.

South Africa’s true pass rate

Of the 1,022,853 grade 2 cohort class enrollment[3], only 629,155 students registered for the matric final exams. This is a dropout rate of 38.49%. When one considers only the 534,484 grade 12 students who actually wrote matric, this dropout rate increases to 47.75%.

The 2017 cohort matric pass rate, which Equal Education has referred to as the true pass rate, is therefore 39.25%. It should be noted that where Equal Education uses the total number of enrolments across public and private schools in its calculations, the table below uses enrolments in public schools, which is what the DBE matric pass rate is based on. The Democratic Alliance has offered another analysis of this year’s matric results, comparing the pass rate to the number of learners who enrolled for grade 10 in 2015.

“Last year, 41% of the learners who had enrolled in Grade 10 in 2015 did not enrol for matric,” the DA said. “The number of Grade 10s from 2015 who passed matric 2017 – was only 37.3%.

This is cause for serious concern, rather than celebration.”

Year

Registered for matric exams

Pass rate

Cohort enrollment in gr.

2

Cohort pass rate

2017 629,155 75.1% 1,022,853 39.25%
2016 674,652 72.5% 1,081,652 41.98%
2015 667,925 70.7% 1,118,690 41.65%
2014 532,860 75.8% 1,109,201 37.2%
2013 562,112 78.2% 1,111,858 40.42%
2012 511,152 73.9% 1,012,892 38.07%

Now read: Matric results 2017 – where to get them[4]

References

  1. ^ Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has released (mybroadband.co.za)
  2. ^ Equal Education has described (mybroadband.co.za)
  3. ^ grade 2 cohort class enrollment (www.dhet.gov.za)
  4. ^ Matric results 2017 – where to get them (mybroadband.co.za)

South Africa’s Matric pass rate – 1995 to 2017

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has revealed the matric pass rate for 2017, with 75.1% of students progressing. The pass rate of 75.1% is up compared to the 72.5% pass rate of 2016. Candidates can get their individual results on 5 January from their school or the centre where they wrote their exams, major newspapers, local websites, and SMS and USSD services.

Over 50% of learners passed with the required standard to enable them to access higher education — either universities or universities of technology.

Matric pass rate from 1995 to 2017

The table below shows the matric pass rate over the past two decades.

Matric Pass Rate
Year Pass Rate
1995 53.4%
1996 54.4%
1997 47.4%
1998 49.3%
1999 48.9%
2000 57.9%
2001 61.7%
2002 68.9%
2003 73.3%
2004 70.7%
2005 68.3%
2006 66.5%
2007 65.2%
2008 62.5%
2009 60.6%
2010 67.8%
2011 70.3%
2012 73.9%
2013 78.3%
2014 75.8%
2015 70.7%
2016 72.5%
2017 75.1%

Now read: Matric results 2017 – where to get them[1]

References

  1. ^ Matric results 2017 – where to get them (mybroadband.co.za)

South Africa’s real 2016 Matric pass rate – 44.8%

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has released[1] the 2016 National Senior Certificate results, revealing a matric pass rate of 72.5%. However, the official pass rate does not tell the full story – ignoring the large percentage of students who drop out before they write the matric exams. Equal Education describes[2] the matric pass percentage as a superficial and misleading indicator of public education quality.

“The pass rate reflects only the performance of those learners who managed to stay in school for 12 years and obscures how many dropped out along the way,” said Equal Education. It said the Basic Education Department has systematically failed to address learner retention. For a broader perspective, you must use a cohort matric pass rate, it said.

Equal Education defines the cohort matric pass rate as the percentage of learners in grade 2 who pass matric 11 years later.

South Africa’s true pass rate

Of the 1,081,652 grade 2 cohort class enrollment[3], only 668,612 students made it to the matric final exams. This is a dropout rate of 38.19%. The 2016 cohort matric pass rate – referred to as the true pass rate – is therefore 44.8%.

The table below shows the cohort matric pass rate over the last five years, using Equal Education’s calculations.

Year Number who wrote matric Pass rate Cohort enrollment in grade 2 Cohort pass rate
2016 668,612 72.5% 1,081,652 44.8%
2015 667,925 70.7% 1,118,690 42.2%
2014 532,860 75.8% 1,109,201 36.4%
2013 562,112 78.2% 1,111,858 39.6%
2012 511,152 73.9% 1,012,892 37.3%
2011 496,090 70.2% 944,977 36.8%

Now read: Matric results 2016 – where to get them online[4]

References

  1. ^ Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has released (mybroadband.co.za)
  2. ^ Equal Education describes (mybroadband.co.za)
  3. ^ grade 2 cohort class enrollment (www.dhet.gov.za)
  4. ^ Matric results 2016 – where to get them online (mybroadband.co.za)