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after-savva

Today's Newspoll

Murdoch is working very hard. But he cannot plausibly get the Coalition above 50, two party preferred. He rings only landlines that is, octogenarians. He redistributes Greens preferences as they were in 2013, when Windsor and Oakeshott and Katter thought Abbott would not cancel his money to Gonski, to health, to SBS and the ABC. He rings no mobile phones.

And even with these limits he achieves no more than 50-50. The real vote, probably, is Labor on 52.3 or 53.4 two party preferred. On top of this, there are only big mistakes being made. Abbott s assistant Credlin proves to have been, like Claudia s Livia, a ferocious screeching tryrant of his empire he, too, obeyed, and an enemy of his female deputy. Dutton proves to have spent fifty million bringing back from Cambodia asylum seekers he sent there.

There is a further question, about the Liberal Party. How did they tolerate Abbott/Credlin for seven years? How wise were they? Are they? Is Pyne?

Is Joyce? Is Cormann? Is Abetz? Is Andrews? Are they as wise as Plibersek? As Wong? As Dreyfus? As Burke? As Clare?

How many wise men have they left? Is Morrison wise? Is Joyce? Will Turnbull s genial insouciance cover all? Is Turnbull as stupid as he seems to be?

Will a ten-week campaign work, as it narrowly did for Bob Hawke, work?

And we will see what we shall see.