Four minutes to work out sub 10 Mbps and difference between availability and take-up

Four minutes to work out that we currently see 3.57 million premises under 10 Mbps

All three figures for the number of premises under 10 Mbps are likely to be calculated correctly or to at least within the tolerances of the data set they are based upon, and we can add a fourth figure to this ballet of PR with a very quick four minute calculation based on speeds we see the public testing at during Q2/2017.

  1. Ofcom 1.4 million premises is based on the availability of services using data from April/May 2016 and verifying this from the Ofcom public data set is hampered by removal of small postcodes from the data set. Note: Small postcodes occur in both urban and rural settings, e.g. many central London areas have lots of single premise postcodes.
  2. BIG Broadband 2.0 6.7 million premises is based on an analysis of Ofcom Connected Nations report, so is based on connection speed data providers have supplied in 2016 (and some may be from 2015)
  3. thinkbroadband 904,000 premises is the figure from 25th July 2017, and is changing weekly with the general trend downwards, but sometimes it can go up e.g. spot a new housing development that does not have superfast available to it. Back in May 2016 our figure for number of premises under 10 Mbps was 4.6% so 1.32 million premises, i.e. pretty much the same as the Ofcom report.
  4. thinkbroadband 3.57 million premises is based on a fast four minute analysis of the number of speed tests we see for ADSL2+, FTTC, cable and FTTH that are under 10 Mbps and the basic knowledge that 23.5 million broadband connections exist in the UK.

    26% of ADSL/ADSL2+ tests in Q2 were under 10 Mbps, 7% of FTTC tests under 10 Mbps, 10% of cable broadband under 10 Mbps and 5% of FTTH under 10 Mbps.

The problem with the many figures is that the highest 6.7 million will chime well with those who even after many years of superfast broadband roll-outs are aggrieved that they do not have a faster option. The Ofcom figure while still quoted as the official one is now well over a year old and thus any cost for implementing a Universal Service Obligation could be significantly out, and if the USO footprint is smaller you can spend the same money and deliver a much better and more future proof technical solution.

Potentially further analysis of our speed tests results and comparison with the coverage data could arrive at things like average speeds where only a slower than 10 Mbps product is available, and average speeds in the better part of the UK, and many other permutations are possible, but the stark reality is that the superfast roll-outs need to continue and people need to keep upgrading to those services.


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